EURUSD – Weekly Market Forecast
Market Bias (Weekly Outlook)Primary Trend: Bearish
Current Phase: Retracement into Supply (Distribution Zone)
Context: Price is currently pushing into a premium area, suggesting potential for sell-side continuation after internal liquidity is captured.
Higher Timeframe Narrative
Structure: Weekly market structure remains bearish with Lower High (LH) and Lower Low (LL) sequences intact.
Logic: The current bullish move is classified as a corrective rally or a liquidity grab designed to induce late buyers.
Expectation: Market is likely preparing for a distribution phase at premium prices before an expansion to the downside.
Key Weekly Zones
Supply (Sell Zones)
Zone 1: 1.1560 – 1.1645 (Immediate Institutional Reaction Zone)
Zone 2: 1.1820 – 1.1905 (Extreme HTF Supply / Major Liquidity Pool)
Demand (Buy Zones)
Major Weekly Demand: 1.1422
Note: A sustained break below 1.1422 would signal further long-term downside expansion.
Weekly Liquidity Outlook
Buy-side Liquidity: Resting above the 1.1600 – 1.1650 range.
Sell-side Liquidity: Trapped below the 1.1500 and 1.1420 levels.
Tactical View: Expect liquidity engineering (e.g., a fake breakout or a sweep of buy-stops) before the genuine trend-aligned move occurs.
High-Probability Weekly Scenarios
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (Primary Outlook)
Conditions: Liquidity sweep above 1.1600 followed by a clear rejection from supply and a shift in structure (H1 / H4).
Targets: 1.1500 | 1.1450 | 1.1422.
Extension: A break of 1.1422 opens the path for further downside objectives.
Scenario 2: Bullish Expansion (Alternative Case)
Conditions: Strong weekly acceptance and candle close above 1.1645, with the market holding above the supply zone.
Targets: 1.1700 | 1.1800 | 1.1900.
Indication: This would suggest a temporary trend shift or a deeper retracement.
Scenario 3: Range / Accumulation Week
Conditions: Price fluctuates between 1.1500 – 1.1645 without clear direction.
Observation: Liquidity builds on both sides of the range.
Outcome: High-volatility expansion is likely in the following week.
Final Strategic Note
The focus remains on monitoring institutional footprints at the 1.1600 – 1.1645 supply cluster. Precision execution will require lower timeframe confirmation of market structure shifts.
